导出博客文章CHICAGO -- Joe Maddon showed up in a blue Chicago Cubs We Came To Reign sweater.
On Friday, he might as well try chaps and spurs.Thats because Maddon will
probably feel like he is in the Wild West when the Cubs open their NL Division
Series against the San Francisco Giants, managing against Bruce Bochy.Hes a
cowboy, Maddon said Thursday. Hell do anything. And when you manage against a
cowboy, its always interesting.It sure figures to be that way with two
successful managers with different approaches going at it. Maddon and Bochy tend
to treat regular-season matchups as if they were playoff games. Now that they
are actually meeting in the postseason?Oh, theyre going to have a field day,
Cubs outfielder Chris Coghlan said. Theyre going to love it. They do every
time.Theres Maddon, the laid-back professorial hipster with the white hair and
horned rim glasses, who balances advanced metrics with more traditional analysis
and keeps his players on their toes simply by being different and fun.He also
has a team that comes in with a major league-leading 103 wins and the hopes of
its long-suffering fans that the teams first World Series title since 1908 is on
the way.Then theres the more old-school Bochy, who while not quite as immersed
in the numbers has led the Giants to three World Series titles since 2010. And
for what its worth, all three have come in even-numbered years.We look forward
to managing against guys that we know do such a great job and will be so well
prepared and it makes you stay on your toes and make sure that youre ready and
youre prepared, Bochy said. So, especially going against such a good club and
hes got a lot of weapons over there and its up to me to have these guys ready
and of course have my moves ready.The Cubs took four of seven meetings from the
Giants this season. And their final five games were all decided by one run.While
the outcome of the series largely hinges on the arms of Jon Lester and Johnny
Cueto and the bats of Kris Bryant and Buster Posey, the matchup between Maddon
and Bochy is one to watch.I think the strategies and what the other guys are
thinking, I just know from the years playing against the Giants and Bochy he
just does a really good job of having two guys up all the time ready for that
pinch-hitter, ready for the matchup, Cubs slugger Anthony Rizzo said. And
playing with Joe, he does a good job.The two have a strong mutual admiration
that took root when they first crossed paths managing in the minors decades ago.
While Maddon relies more on advanced metrics, he and Bochy are both respected by
their players for their communication skills and penchant for making the right
move.Maddon, of course, is also known to have zoo animals at Wrigley Field. And
onesie road trips. He showed up one day at spring training dressed in a tie-dye
T-shirt and headband in a throwback 1970s van blasting Earth, Wind & Fire.It
wasnt his last groovy thought.The other day I texted him. I changed my number,
Coghlan said.Maddons response?Groovy, he said.But to Coghlan, its not just that
Maddon is fun and cool. He also happens to be a great coach with a knack for
finding a flaw, for example, in something as simple as his footwork.Coghlan
appreciates that more than anything else, though it sure doesnt hurt knowing the
man in the dugout will usually make all the right moves during the game.Coghlan
sees a thought process in Maddon that is different than a lot of managers Ive
played for and doesnt see how anyone could be better.Just to see him and how he
thinks is really interesting, and I think theres a reason why hes had a lot of
success, he said.The guy who will be in the other dugout has had his share of
it, too.
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Rinne played two periods in his first game since left hip surgery in early May.
Gabriel Bourque scored 3:07 into the second period and Austin Watson tallied
5:15 later for Nashville. The Tom Brady were seeing in 2016 isnt at all like the
one we were expecting, but maybe we shouldnt be surprised.Popular opinion pushed
Brady projections after he missed the first four games of the season into two
camps. The pessimistic camp saw a 39-year-old quarterback who would be coming
off an abbreviated training camp and a four-week absence from football and
reasonably expected Brady to be rusty. The optimistic side expected Brady to be
a vengeful, hyperaggressive gunner, something more akin to the screw you Brady
of 2007 -- throwing deep into the fourth quarter and racking up points against
desperately overmatched competition.In reality, the Brady of 2016 is neither of
those guys. He certainly hasnt been rusty, and while hes been wildly effective,
there hasnt been a real hint of venom to his performance so far. Against a
series of average-or-worse defenses per DVOA, Brady has been extremely
efficient. Theres a reason Rex Ryan said that he has [never] seen Brady this
hot, after Sundays 41-25 thumping of the Bills in Buffalo. Brady doesnt appear
angry, but he does appear close to untouchable.And so the questions mount. Is
this as good as he has been, and is he going where no QB his age has gone
before? And when all is said and done, is he an MVP??Is this the best Tom Brady
weve ever seen?If its not the best four-game stretch Brady has ever put
together, it isnt far off. What he has done over the first four games of his
2016 season has been scary: Brady is 98-of-134 for a 73.1 completion percentage,
throwing for 1,319 yards and averaging 9.84 yards per attempt. He leads all
qualifying passers in both of those rate statistics. Perhaps most impressively
(albeit unsurprisingly): Brady has thrown 12 touchdowns without an
interception.In all, Brady has posted a passer rating of 133.9 through four
games. 133.9! Thats unreal. We would say those are video game numbers, but if
the game was that easy, you would raise the difficulty level because it almost
wouldnt be fun if you were that good. To compare, you can split Bradys career up
into 181 four-game stretches without crossing over seasons. Theres some overlap
because Brady put together two incredible six-game runs, but of those 181
four-game stretches, Brady posted a passer rating higher than 133.9 just seven
times
uring the first four weeks of the 2007 season, when Bradys connection
with Randy Moss and Wes Welker in a newly spread-happy Patriots attack took
defenses by surprise.Three different times from Weeks 5 through 11 of the 2007
season, as what was then regarded as the greatest offense in NFL history hit its
peak around New Englands Week 10 bye. Brady peaked with a 138.9 rating during
that stretch, culminating in a 56-10 win over these same Bills. The Pats
averaged 41.1 points through that Bills game and a much more reasonable 29.7
points per game afterward.Three more times during a stretch from Weeks 10
through 15 of the 2010 season, when Brady followed up a 20-point loss in
Cleveland to Eric Manginis Browns by going 6-0 and throwing for 1,735 yards with
17 touchdowns against zero picks in a six-game span, peaking with a 138.6 passer
rating.QBR only exists through the 2006 campaign, but given how Bradys numbers
took a dramatic leap during the 2007 season, its safe to use it as a comparison
here as well. It agrees with passer rating. According to ESPN Stats &
Information, Brady posted 96.4 QBR during a four-game stretch from Weeks 7
through 11 of the 2007 season, which is just absurd; it suggests that an average
team with an average defense and average luck would win 96.4 percent of the time
if it had a quarterback playing like Brady under center.Brady also had a stretch
with a 92.9 QBR that season, and two consecutive 2010 four-game runs with a 92.1
QBR, all of which are adjusted for quality of competition. Through four games
this year, Brady has posted a 91.6 QBR, which is the fifth-best run of his
professional career. Brady has averaged 11.6 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A)
through these four games; he has had only three previous stretches in his career
with a better AY/A -- and they were all in 2010.No matter what broad measure of
quarterback play you use, the results are roughly the same: Were looking at one
of the best quarter-seasons of Bradys career, and its almost certainly the best
stretch since the 2010 season, when Rob Gronkowski was a rookie and only became
the fourth option in the passing attack once the Patriots traded Moss away in
midseason. Just eight Patriots from that team are on the 2016 roster. Its been
awhile since Brady was this great.How is he different from the Brady of the
recent past?The biggest difference is volume, which may very well be influencing
Bradys efficiency. He may be more effective than he has been in years because
Brady is throwing less frequently than he typically would. Brady has thrown 134
passes during his first four games this year, an average of 33.5 passes per
contest. Thats remarkably low for the future Hall of Famer: The only previous
four-game stretches in which his attempt totals were that low include runs from
2014, including the Chiefs game (in which Brady was removed in the fourth
quarter for his own safety behind a porous offensive line) and the final four
weeks of 2014 and 2015, when Brady took limited snaps in Week 17.2010 is really
the last time the Patriots put this little stress on Brady. He has averaged 616
pass attempts per 16 games over the past five years and never posted fewer than
582 passes over that span. If Brady averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game over a
full 16-game season, he would hit 536 tries. You might imagine that low total is
due to the fact that the Patriots are blowing teams out and just running the
ball more frequently, but they were beating other teams up and still throwing
the ball a ton in years past.The answer is more complex. First, they are
definitely running the ball more frequently in passing situations. From 2013 to
2015, on first-and-10, Bradys Patriots threw the ball 53.1 percent of the time,
the eighth-highest rate in the league. This year, since Bradys return to the
lineup, theyre throwing the ball on only 45.5 percent of first-and-10 plays,
which ranks 24th.The Patriots are also operating at a slower tempo than they did
under Belichick and Josh McDaniels in years past. From 2013 to 2015, again with
Brady at the helm, they used 26.6 seconds of possession per play, which was the
third-highest rate in the league behind the Eagles and Jaguars. This year, since
Bradys return, theyve run a play once every 28.3 seconds of possession, which is
right around the league average (28.4). Theyre slower and more methodical, but
when Brady throws, hes staggeringly effective.By emphasizing the run, the
Patriots also may have opened up an avenue which seemed lost and should terrify
opposing teams: Brady suddenly has been able to throw downfield again this year.
Hes throwing downfield about as frequently as he has in years past, but this
year those throws are far more effective. From 2013 to 2015, on throws which
traveled 16 or more yards in the air (the NFLs definition of a deep pass),
Bradys 80.0 passer rating was only goood for 22nd in the league, while his
76.dddddddddddd5 QBR was a similarly middling 23rd. Brady completed just 38.3
percent of his deep throws for 17 touchdowns against 13 picks.In 2016, Brady has
been nearly flawless on those same passes. He has thrown only 21 of them so far,
but his QBR on those deep throws is a nice, neat 100 (a perfect QBR score).
Brady is 13-of-21 on those passes for 521 yards with four touchdowns and zero
picks. He has posted a 145.3 passer rating on those attempts. Nobody in the
league has been better on deep passes this season than Brady, to which Chris
Hogan can attest. Most 39-year-olds dont pick up fading arm strength and return
the deep pass to their repertoire. And hey, speaking of age ...Has anybody
Bradys age ever played this well?The short answer is no. The vast majority of
Hall of Fame-caliber quarterbacks were done by their age-39 season. Peyton
Manning just finished his age-39 campaign and was suddenly a sub-replacement
quarterback, albeit one who was dragged by his defense to a Super Bowl title.
Dan Marino, Joe Montana, Steve Young and Kurt Warner retired at 38. Johnny
Unitas and Sonny Jurgensen were part-timers.There are only three quarterbacks in
league history who have started 10 games or more during their age-39 season, as
Brady likely will if he stays healthy. One was Doug Flutie, who split time with
Drew Brees and threw more interceptions than touchdowns for the 2001 Chargers.
The second was Brett Favre, who was playing his lone year (2008) in New York
with the Jets and threw as many interceptions (22) as touchdowns in a
frustrating, injury-affected season.The best age-39 passer was Warren Moon, who
racked up numbers for the Vikings. Moon led the league in completions and threw
33 touchdowns against 14 picks while posting a 115 AY/A+ (in which league
average is 100). Brady, through four weeks, has?posted a 159 AY/A+. Moon played
well and made the Pro Bowl, but nobody was suggesting he was the best
quarterback in football. Bradys quite clearly in that discussion.Is he the best
quarterback in football right now?Not only is Brady the best quarterback in the
league, but I dont think its particularly close. Ill get to the idea of which
quarterback has accumulated the most value in a bit, but in terms of rate
statistics, Bradys significantly ahead of all other qualifying passers in every
major category:Ive seen arguments suggesting that Bradys performance should be
taken with a grain of salt by virtue of the players around him and the success
of Jimmy Garoppolo earlier this season, and thats just nuts. Garoppolo did have
a similarly impressive QBR, but Bradys rate statistics are otherwise well ahead
of Garoppolos in the backups two starts earlier this year.In addition, it
shouldnt seem like a coincidence that the offense has clicked even more with
Brady at the helm. Hes being pressured quite frequently -- 32.2 percent of the
time, with just four passers bothered more often -- but Bradys taking an average
of only 2.35 seconds to get the ball out for a safe throw, which is the
sixth-quickest rate in football. Some fans suggest that Brady needs Gronkowski
ambulatory to succeed, but it also should be pointed out how Gronk immediately
got going once Brady returned to the lineup.After the game, despite torching the
Bills for 109 yards and a touchdown, Gronk didnt receive any praise from the
Bills defense:?One player said that Gronk needed Brady to unlock the massive
tight ends size for mismatches while another suggested that Martellus Bennett
was the better tight end of the two. Sour grapes, perhaps, but Brady and
Gronkowski do certainly make one another better without pushing either into some
sort of fraud category.Should he be in the running/a favorite for league
MVP?Lets finish with this one, because I think its fascinating. Ill get into the
other candidates in a week or two, but when I ran through MVP choices at the
beginning of October for my quarter-season awards, my pick was Matt Ryan. Ryans
now second to Brady in many rate categories and, by virtue of having played
eight games, leads the league in passing yards (2,636) and passing touchdowns
(19). Ryans the quarterback for an undeniably successful team with an 80.3
percent chance of making the playoffs, per ESPNs Football Power Index.Chase
Stuart of Football Perspective wrote about the idea of winning an award
despite?failing to play a full slate because of an injury or suspension. The
only player to win the APs Most Valuable Player award while missing a notable
amount of time was Joe Montana in 1989, who played 13 games and still managed to
get the nod. (It helped that Steve Young happened to be the backup in San
Francisco at the time.)Montana was head-and-shoulders above the pack that year:
He completed 70.2 percent of his passes when nobody else was above 63 percent,
averaged 9.1 yards per throw when nobody else was above 8.3, and finished 20
points ahead of everyone else in passer rating. No other competitive player
emerged, as the top running backs were in a narrow battle, while the top
receiver was Jerry Rice, who was overseen for his quarterback. Chris Doleman had
21 sacks but didnt receive serious MVP consideration, apparently. And,
crucially, the 49ers went 11-2 in Montanas starts and finished 14-2 in a league
in which only one other team won as many as 12 games. They were clearly the best
team in football.Could Brady and the Patriots fit that bill? Absolutely.Theres
no obvious counter candidate at a different position. Running backs are less
important than ever before, and Ezekiel Elliott is more likely to be an
Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate. Theres no otherworldly defender like
J.J. Watt suiting up this season, while there are so many incredible wide
receivers that it would be almost impossible to vote for, say, Julio Jones over
Antonio Brown and A.J. Green.The dominant leads in various rate statistics are
already in play, as I mentioned earlier, if Brady can keep them up over the
course of the season. He might also need the Patriots to stand out as the best
team in football, which is hardly likely to be a problem. The Pats have the the
leagues best record at 7-1, and with the AFC East looking limited at best, New
England has a far easier path to postseason comforts. The Football Power Index
gives the Patriots a staggering 78.8 percent chance of coming away with the top
seed in the AFC.The FPI also gives the Patriots a 9.9% chance of running the
table, which would likely create an irresistible case for Brady. The Patriots
would finish the year at 15-1, and Brady would have gone 12-0 as the teams
starter. If Brady also led the league in every meaningful quarterback rate
statistic, theres no way the electorate would vote for somebody else. Even if
voters are typically exhausted of giving the award to prior winners and dont
want to read or write another article about Deflategate, Brady would be too
valuable of a passer to ignore.He was gone, but after one month, Bradys service
has been more than restored. It has been upgraded.
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