Having covered on-ice shooting and save percentages aleady, the next step is to look at the biggest variance in individual NHL player shooting percentages this season.
[b]Clearance MLB Jerseys[/b] . While it might be easy enough to accept the notion that its difficult for a player to affect on-ice shooting or save percentages, because they are heavily-dependent on other players, its another matter entirely to accept the premise that an NHL player doesnt necessrily have a significant impact on his own shooting percentage in a given season. For one thing, as much as it might be convenient for viewrs, a single season isnt enough to capture a players true shooting ability, which means there is a high degree of variance possible. This variance is important, particularly in terms of perception, because its how players end up having career years. When Brett Hull scored 86 goals in 1990-1991, he finished a career-high 22.1% of all of his shots; 65 goals for Alex Ovechkin in 2007-2008? Scored on a career-high 14.6% of all of his shots. Teemu Selannes 76-goal rookie season came on 19.6% shooting, the best of his career. This is how seasons go from good to great but, just as save percentage is wildly unpredictable for goaltenders from one year to the next, so too is shooting percentage for individual players. This is relevant because perception is widely based on goal-scoring. Goals determine winners and losers and are easy to identify, but the reason we pay attention to these outlier percentages is to have have some idea whats real and what isnt. Take Blues LW Alexander Steen, for example. Hes enjoying the best season of his career, with 33 goals and 60 points in 64 games. Hes a tremendous two-way player who has probably been underrated, but hes received more accolades this year because hes become a more prolific goal-scorer. Even though his scoring has slowed since an outrageous start to the year, when he scored 17 goals in 18 games, Steen ranks fifth in the league in goals per game, behind Steven Stamkos, Alex Ovechkin, Gustav Nyquist and Corey Perry. If Steen was finishing at his typical (5-on-5) rate, 8.87% over the previous five seasons coming into the year, that would knock 11 even-strength goals off his total and while 22 goals and 49 points in 64 games is a fine season, its not held in the same esteem as Steens 33-goal, 60-point season. When youve evaluating Steen going forward, is it fair to conclude that hes now the player who scores on 18.4% of his 5-on-5 shots, or is that departure from his established performance level essentially a fluke? There is a lot of randomness at play for a player to have his shooting percentage skyrocket, Steen (and his linemates -- David Backes and T.J. Oshie) deserve some credit because Steen is getting better quality shots than he has in previous seasons. Using Some Kind of Ninjas shot tracker, we can see that Steens average shooting distance, at even-strength, is 28.4 feet, his best of all years tracked since 2008-2009. So, getting shots 3-4 feet closer on average may account for some improvement, though most likely not enough to more than double his even-strength shooting percentage. Lets look at Nyquist, who had four goals in 40 NHL games entering this season and now has 28 goals in 51 games this year, virtually saving the Red Wings playoff chances. Even the most optimistic fan isnt going to expect Nyquist to keep scoring on more than 20% of his shots, simply because no one does. This isnt to rain on Nyquists current goal parade, because its awesome, but if we reasonably think that Nyquist might be an above-average shooter (even, as high as 12%), then that would typically mean 12 goals at 5-on-5 instead of 21 -- that nine-goal difference would be massive for both Nyquist and the Red Wings. Its the kind of thing that no player needs to apologize for, but everyone must understand that these runs will end and regression will bring a player closer to his real skill level. That can still be very good, just not necessarily the out-of-this-world pace that Nyquist is keeping now. By the same token, how many times do you hear a player, mired in a slump, say that they feel okay as long as they are getting their chances? Its cliche, but utterly true. Sure, this player might be snakebitten for 10 games, 20 games, even a whole season, but if there is an established level of being able to score, there have to be extreme reasons for that player to suddenly and dramatically lose that skill. If youre looking for bounceback players going into next season, then, consider some of those that saw their shooting percentages crash this year and, by contrast, you might consider selling high on those players that finished at an abnormally high rate this season. Below, youll see players that have the widest differentials in their previously-established 5-on-5 shooting percentages compared to their results this season. My thanks to stats.hockeyanalysis.com for the data. HIGH INDIVIDUAL SHOOTING PERCENTAGE (min. 10 5-on-5 goals in 2013-2014) Alexander Steen, LW, St. Louis 2007-2013 5-on-5 SH%: 8.87 2013-14 5-on-5 SH%: 18.40 Difference: +9.53 Joe Pavelski, C, San Jose 2007-2013 5-on-5 SH%: 8.19 2013-14 On-ice SH%: 16.80 Difference: +8.61 Ryan OReilly, LW, Colorado 2007-2013 5-on-5 SH%: 6.98 2013-14 On-ice SH%: 15.13 Difference: +8.15 Joel Ward, RW, Washington 2007-2013 5-on-5 SH%: 6.67 2013-14 On-ice SH%: 14.44 Difference: +7.77 Ryan Getzlaf, C, Anaheim 2007-2013 5-on-5 SH%: 10.42 2013-14 On-ice SH%: 17.32 Difference: +6.90 Nick Foligno, LW, Columbus 2007-2013 5-on-5 SH%: 7.89 2013-14 On-ice SH%: 14.74 Difference: +6.85 Artem Anisimov, C, Columbus 2007-2013 5-on-5 SH%: 9.83 2013-14 On-ice SH%: 15.38 Difference: +6.45 Frans Nielsen, C, N.Y. Islanders 2007-2013 5-on-5 SH%: 8.89 2013-14 On-ice SH%: 14.89 Difference: +6.00 Valtteri Filppula, C, Tampa Bay 2007-2013 5-on-5 SH%: 11.96 2013-14 On-ice SH%: 17.20 Difference: +5.24 (Honourable mention to Nashvilles Nick Spaling, who has nine 5-on-5 goals, but has seen 5-on-5 shooting percentage jump from 8.38% to 13.64% and San Joses Martin Havlat, who only has eight goals, but his SH% is up from 9.47% to 16.00%.) LOW INDIVIDUAL SHOOTING PERCENTAGE (forwards with min. 20 5-on-5 goals from 2007-2008 through 2012-2013) Matt DAgostini, RW, Buffalo 2007-2013 5-on-5 SH%: 7.54 2013-14 On-ice SH%: 2.53 Difference: -5.01 Todd Bertuzzi, RW, Detroit 2007-2013 5-on-5 SH%: 9.95 2013-14 On-ice SH%: 4.76 Difference: -5.19 Torrey Mitchell, RW, Buffalo 2007-2013 5-on-5 SH%: 7.62 2013-14 On-ice SH%: 2.33 Difference: -5.29 Mathieu Perreault, C, Anaheim 2007-2013 5-on-5 SH%: 21.90 2013-14 On-ice SH%: 16.46 Difference: -5.44 Kyle Brodziak, C, Minnesota 2007-2013 5-on-5 SH%: 10.20 2013-14 On-ice SH%: 4.49 Difference: -5.71 Blake Comeau, RW, Columbus 2007-2013 5-on-5 SH%: 9.66 2013-14 On-ice SH%: 3.49 Difference: -6.17 Ryan Malone, LW, Tampa Bay 2007-2013 5-on-5 SH%: 11.90 2013-14 On-ice SH%: 5.66 Difference: -6.24 Tomas Fleischmann, LW, Florida 2007-2013 5-on-5 SH%: 11.58 2013-14 On-ice SH%: 5.26 Difference: -6.32 Colin Wilson, LW, Nashville 2007-2013 5-on-5 SH%: 14.02 2013-14 On-ice SH%: 7.59 Difference: -6.43 Steve Ott, C, St. Louis 2007-2013 5-on-5 SH%: 9.82 2013-14 On-ice SH%: 3.33 Difference: -6.49 David Jones, RW, Calgary 2007-2013 5-on-5 SH%: 13.92 2013-14 On-ice SH%: 6.67 Difference: -7.25 Steve Bernier, RW, New Jersey 2007-2013 5-on-5 SH%: 9.78 2013-14 On-ice SH%: 2.41 Difference: -7.37 Shawn Horcoff, C, Dallas 2007-2013 5-on-5 SH%: 9.69 2013-14 On-ice SH%: 2.04 Difference: -7.62 T.J. Galiardi, LW, Calgary 2007-2013 5-on-5 SH%: 10.31 2013-14 On-ice SH%: 2.47 Difference: -7.84 Benoit Pouliot, N.Y. Rangers 2007-2013 5-on-5 SH%: 13.46 2013-14 On-ice SH%: 4.81 Difference: -8.65 Alexandre Burrows, RW, Vancouver 2007-2013 5-on-5 SH%: 12.77 2013-14 On-ice SH%: 4.11 Difference: -8.66 Martin Erat, LW, Phoenix 2007-2013 5-on-5 SH%: 11.90 2013-14 On-ice SH%: 2.50 Difference: -9.40 Marcus Johansson, LW, Washington 2007-2013 5-on-5 SH%: 14.47 2013-14 On-ice SH%: 3.03 Difference: -11.44 Ville Leino, LW, Buffalo 2007-2013 5-on-5 SH%: 12.50 2013-14 On-ice SH%: 0.00 Difference: -12.50 Steve Downie, RW, Philadelphia 2007-2013 5-on-5 SH%: 13.00 2013-14 On-ice SH%: 0.00 Difference: -13.00 Scott Cullen can be reached at
Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and followed on Twitter at
http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen. For more, check out TSN Fantasy on Facebook.
[b]Cheap MLB Jerseys From China[/b] . The fourth-year guard from Carleton University kicked off his varsity career with rookie of the year honours in 2011, before racking up three straight Mike Moser Memorial Trophies for outstanding player.
[b]MLB Jerseys Outlet[/b] . Colton Sissons also scored for Milwaukee (19-12-8), which went ahead with a two-goal third period. Wade MacLeod and Greg McKegg replied for Toronto (23-12-4).FOXBOROUGH, Mass. - One big comeback, then another.And now another game for Tom Brady and the New England Patriots.The quarterback who treats deficits as distractions dug the Patriots out of two 14-point holes — the first team to do that in NFL playoff history — to reach the AFC championship game for the fourth straight year with a 35-31 win over the Baltimore Ravens on Saturday.Behind twice by 14 wasnt necessarily in the plan, Brady said. It took a lot of execution to overcome it.Thanks to three touchdown passes by Brady and one by college quarterback turned receiver Julian Edelman, the resilient Patriots kept their season alive.Right now, its all about giving us a chance to come to work again, said safety Devin McCourty, who batted down Joe Flaccos desperation pass into the end zone on the last play.Brady led a masterful march — completing eight of nine passes and running for a first down — to the decisive 23-yard touchdown completion to Brandon LaFell with just over five minutes left to give the Patriots their first lead.The top-seeded Patriots (13-4) will host the winner of Sundays Indianapolis-Denver game in the AFC title game. The sixth-seeded Ravens (11-7) had won two of three playoff games in Foxborough over the past five seasons.We came to their home field and fought them to the end and we just came up short, said Kamar Aiken, who caught one of Flaccos four touchdown passes.Brady completed 33 of 50 passes for 367 yards for an offence that picked up just 14 on the ground, the second fewest in team playoff history. His 46 career playoff touchdown passes surpassed Joe Montanas 45 for most in NFL history.Flacco was 28 for 45 for 292 yards and two interceptions. Justin Forsett gained 129 yards on 24 carries.Forsett had an outstanding season replacing the Ray Rice, who was suspended and then released for domestic abuse.Were all faced with challenges in life, Baltimore coach John Harbaugh said, and, as a teacher and coach thats what you ask of your guys. I guess what Im saying is Im so proud of the way they handled it.It was a thrilling game of shifting momentum — two touchdowns by the Ravens, the next two by the Patriots, two more by the Ravens and another two by the Patriots.We had two separate 14-point leads. Those guys did a good job getting it back to seven as quickly as they could, said Flacco, who threw his first two interceptions in six playoff games. They dont panic.Flacco completed his first eight passes, two for touchdowns of 19 yards to Aiken and 9 yards to Steve Smith, to give the Ravens a 14-0 lead.
[b]Wholesale Baseball Jerseys[/b]. Then the Patriots tied it on a 4-yard run by Brady and his 15-yard pass to Danny Amendola late in the first half.The Patriots were driving again — until Daryl Smith intercepted Brady, who immediately grasped both sides of his helmet and then bent over in frustration.It was just a terrible play by me, he said.Flacco capitalized with an 11-yard scoring pass to Owen Daniels with 10 seconds left for a 21-14 halftime lead.And when New England punted on the first series of the third quarter, Baltimore added to its lead on Flaccos fourth scoring pass, a 16-yarder to Forsett, who was wide open in the flat and scored easily.Then fortunes turned again.Brady threw a 5-yard touchdown pass to Rob Gronkowski, and the Patriots got the ball back after a punt. This time, another strong arm lifted the Patriots into a tie.With the ball at the New England 49, Brady threw behind the line of scrimmage to Edelman on the left side. The Kent State quarterback then lofted a deep pass to a wide-open Amendola after cornerback Rashaan Melvin came up toward Edelman.Weve had it in for 10 weeks, and the coaches finally got to call it, Edelman said. I had to loosen up the arm a little bit.After Justin Tuckers 25-yard field goal gave the Ravens a 31-28 lead five minutes into the fourth quarter, the Ravens nearly stopped the Patriots. Brady threw a 9-yard completion to Shane Vereen and officials ruled he fumbled and Baltimore recovered. The call was reversed when replays showed Vereen was down by contact.Seven plays later, LaFell scored.Baltimore had two more possessions. The first ended when Duron Harmon intercepted Flaccos deep pass in the end zone with 1:39 left. On the final series, Flaccos desperation pass into the end zone was knocked down as time expired.It was a wild game, Patriots coach Bill Belichick said, but Im just thankful our players hung in there and made the plays they needed to make.NOTES: Belichick tied Tom Landry for most post-season wins in NFL history with 20. ... Brady set franchise post-season records with 33 completions and 367 yards passing. ... The Ravens outgained the Patriots 428 yards to 422. ... Patriots centre Bryan Stork left the game in the second quarter with a knee injury and didnt return.___AP NFL website:
www.pro32.ap.org and
www.twitter.com/AP_NFL ' ' '
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