导出博客文章WASHINGTON -- Tommie Smith and John Carlos were proud to raise their gloved
fists in a symbolic protest at the Olympics, and now theyre proud that Colin
Kaepernick and other athletes are staging national anthem protests to raise
awareness about racial inequality and police brutality.The American sprinters
who were sent home from the 1968 Mexico City Olympics for what they called a
human rights salute say the San Francisco 49ers quarterback and others are right
to use their platform in an attempt to affect social change 48 years later.Dont
hate the kid because he stood up for something to change, said Smith, who won
the gold medal and set a world record in the 200 meters in 1968. He stood up for
the right to exercise Amendment 1.Speaking Wednesday at the Team USA Awards, the
first U.S. Olympic Committee event theyve been invited to since their protest,
Smith says hes backing Kaepernick because his protest is proactive and Carlos
says theres no better platform than sports to stand up for something, even if it
brings criticism.Protest is a good thing because youre trying to expose certain
things through protest, said Carlos, who won the bronze in the 200. Then, when
you sit back and say, `Well, I dont know whether its the right place to make
statement here or there. In any protest, I think you make a statement to try and
reach the far ends of the earth. What better way to do it than if youre in a
sport.Several athletes have followed Kaepernick, who sat for the anthem, then
modified his protest to kneel during it. Some have raised their fists like Smith
and Carlos.Most recently, Nebraska football players Michael Rose-Ivey, Mohamed
Barry and DaiShon Neal kneeled during the anthem before a game at Northwestern,
drawing criticism from Nebraskas governor. Rose-Ivey is expected to meet with
the governor to discuss the issue next week.It is a sacrifice to deal with
anything other than status quo, Smith said. As we know very well.While Smith
said its important for athletes to study and understand why theyre protesting
and what they want to come out of it, Carlos said backlash is part of the
process.Any individual that makes a public statement or a public scene is saying
we have issues that we need to deal with and we can no longer stick them under
the rug or stick them behind the bus or what have you, Carlos said. By bringing
attention to society, for them to be able to determine themselves why it was
necessary that we take this thing called racism, violence and prejudice and bury
it once and for all.It has taken almost half a century for the USOC to welcome
Smith and Carlos back into the fold after being on the outside for breaking the
rules. Carlos called their return a rebirth and both men hope they can be
ambassadors and a positive influence on young people who werent born when they
protested at the Olympics.We never denounced what we stood for, Carlos said. We
stood for humanity. At the same time they loved the fact that we had courage.
Thats what you need in athletics. For them to come and lower the drawbridge so
to speak and welcome us across with open arms, its a beautiful situation. I dont
think it gets any better.
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defense and special teams both ranked in the middle of the pack, its clear that
the Dallas Cowboys hopes this season rest with an offense that is ranked first
in Expected Points Added (EPA) per game and EPA per snap. But Dallas is nearing
a crossroads at the games most important position. Should they continue to ride
rookie sensation Dak Prescott, or lean on veteran Tony Romo?when he returns? Its
not as simple as saying, The team has gone 5-1 so far, so lets stick with him.
The Cowboys coaches are obviously in the best position to understand each QBs
abilities, but it might be wise to add some numbers to the discussion.Prescott
has only six starts under his belt, so we dont have a long track record to
examine. Theres little doubt hes talented, but when players start out very hot,
its very difficult to sustain that level of performance. Usually, many favorable
factors have combined to allow such a strong start, and those factors are far
from assured to persist. Its not a guarantee, just a strong tendency known as
reversion to the mean.To examine this further, I grouped all new starting QBs
since 2001 into five quintiles (equally sized groups) according to how well
their entire offenses did in their first six starts. Then I compared those
performances with how each quintiles offenses did in their next 10 starts. The
idea is to look at offenses as a whole, rather than just how the QB himself
performs, for two reasons. Dallas has a lot of good pieces around Prescott, and
those pieces and his own abilities complement each other. And overall offensive
performance is also the thing the Cowboys care about the most -- theyre not in a
fantasy league, after all.Prescott is in good company in the top quintile, which
includes guys such as?Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Ben
Roethlisberger?and Cam Newton. But it also inncludes QBs who faded after hot
starts, such as Tim Rattay, Aaron Brooks and Marc Bulger.dddddddddddd Trevor
Siemian and Carson Wentz, two other notable newcomers to the league, would
currently fall into the second-best group.Each of the five quintiles regresses
to the mean in a different way, and Prescotts Cowboys would fall into the top
quintile that holds on to much of its high level of performance through the next
10 starts. We can expect the Dallas offense to regress similarly, in the manner
reflected in the graph below.Accounting for that regression, Prescotts Cowboys
can expect to average about .09 EPA per snap, which would still be excellent,
about sixth or seventh in the league. For context, over a typical game of about
67 plays, .09 EPA per snap would translate into about +4 net points above the
league average (.03 EPA per snap is the league average so far in 2016). But how
does this compare with what we would expect from Romo?The Cowboys offensive
production during Romos career averages .07 EPA per snap, or about +3 net points
per game above average, slightly less than what we might expect with Prescott.
But in his last 32 starts, Dallas has performed slightly better, at .09 EPA per
snap, or about +4 net points above average per game.There are many
considerations we havent accounted for, such as Romos age and associated injury
concerns, Dez Bryants absence or presence, or opponent strength. But by seeing
how top offenses tend to perform after hot starts under new QBs, we can get a
rough approximation of what to expect through the rest of the regular season.
The results of this exercise show that, analytically speaking, the Cowboys can
feel justified going with either quarterback. ' ' '
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